Financial analysis for small businesses

A financial analyst on retainer, not a salary.

Big companies have an FP&A department. You get the same thing on retainer: exact numbers, a model you can act on, and a clear verdict at the top of every report.

Book a 30-minute call See pricing

No pitch on the call. You leave with one real read on your numbers either way.

Monthly report · sample

Verdict: hold the hire. Cash covers it in November, not September.

Cash on hand$84,210

13-week low point-$6,400 wk 7

Gross margin, trailing 3 mo41.2%

Hire affordableNov 1

Illustrative example

$102,740

Median salary for a financial analyst, before benefits. Retainers start at $500/mo. (BLS, 2025)

27 days

Cash the median small business holds. Do you know your number? (JPMorgan Chase Institute)

$118,121

Average profit lost by owners with low financial literacy. (Intuit QuickBooks)

Services

Verdicts, backed by your numbers.

Cash flow modeling

13-week and annual forecasts that show what you can afford and when.

Monthly retainer analysis

An updated model, a KPI dashboard, and one working call, every month.

Pricing and unit economics

Know what each product, service, or unit actually earns before you scale it.

Investment and deal underwriting

Acquisitions, equipment, expansion, or property, with a clear go, pass, or renegotiate verdict.

See a full sample monthly report →

Who this is for

Built for owners with real money on the line.

Real estate investors

Rental and value-add underwriting, refinance math, development and rehab pro formas, and a straight answer on whether the deal clears your hurdle.

Brick-and-mortar owners

Retail, restaurants, trades, and clinics. Margin by location, labor as a percent of revenue, and what the lease really costs you.

Service businesses

Agencies, contractors, and firms that bill for time. Utilization, effective rates, and which clients are quietly unprofitable.

Online businesses

E-commerce and digital products. Contribution margin after ads and fees, inventory cash cycles, and what growth actually costs.

Owners facing one big decision

A hire, a second location, an equipment purchase, a price change, or buying out a partner. Modeled once, decided with numbers.

Buyers and sellers of businesses

What a small business is worth on its real cash flows, and what the numbers say before you sign either side of the deal.

Pricing

Three retainers. No hourly billing, ever.

Start here

Baseline

$500/mo

One clean read on your business, every month.

Monthly financial package, verdict first
KPI dashboard, 8 metrics
30-minute monthly call
Email questions, 48-hour response

Start with Baseline →

Operator

$1,500/mo

Your business as a living model, kept current.

Everything in Baseline, plus

Driver-based model of your business
13-week rolling cash flow
Budget vs actual with verdicts
Two decision analyses per quarter
AI-assisted reporting pipeline
Unlimited async questions
Quarterly deep dive

Start with Operator →

Limited availability

Partner

$3,000/mo

An embedded analyst, without the salary.

Everything in Operator, plus

Weekly call or written brief
Scenario modeling on demand
Lender and board-ready packages
Live dashboard, fully wired
24-hour priority, direct text line

Ask about availability →

Month to month after a 3-month start on Operator and Partner. Leave any time with 30 days notice; every model and file stays with you. Single projects from $600.

How it works

From messy books to a working model in 30 days.

Send your numbers

Books, bank statements, or exports from your tools. Messy is fine.

Get the model

Built once for your business, then kept current on retainer.

Act on the verdict

Every report leads with the conclusion, then the numbers behind it.

What we don't do, by design: investment or securities advice, bookkeeping, tax, audits, or personal financial planning. We analyze your business so you, and those professionals, act on solid numbers.

Based inDuluth, Minnesota

Founded2026 · Founder-run

Directkai@meltonanalytics.com

Who you're working with

Kai Melton

I build and run my own businesses in Duluth, Minnesota: a supplement brand, a real estate practice, and the deals I underwrite with my own money on the line. Melton Analytics exists because every owner I know makes six-figure decisions with numbers nobody has actually read. I'm a licensed Minnesota REALTOR®, I live in the same economy my clients do, and every model that leaves this firm is built by me and every verdict is signed by me.

01Verdict first. You get the conclusion in the first sentence, then the numbers that earned it.

02Exact figures, named sources. If I can't verify it, I say so.

03Your models are yours. Leave any time and everything I built goes with you.

Questions owners ask

I already have a bookkeeper.

Keep them. They record what happened; we tell you what to do about it. Their output is our input.

Can I pay hourly instead?

No. You're buying verdicts and a model that stays current, not time. The packages are the deal.

What happens if I leave?

30 days notice, any time after the initial term. Every model, dashboard, and file was built for you and stays with you.

Can't AI do this now?

AI runs the pipeline, which is why the price is this low. The verdict, and being accountable for it, is a person.

One call. One real read on your numbers. No pitch.

30 minutes, and you leave with a verdict on your business whether or not we work together.

Book your call →

kai@meltonanalytics.com

Pick a time that works, or email and you'll have a confirmed slot within a day.

← Back to overview

Sample deliverableFictional clients, illustrative figures. The monthly report is what an Operator retainer receives; the underwrite is a one-off or Partner-tier deliverable.

Monthly report · August 2026

Harbor & Pine Coffee Co.

Two locations, Duluth MN · Operator retainer

Prepared by
Melton Analytics

The verdict

Fix Superior St labor before adding anything new. Labor ran 31.4% of revenue against a 28% target; the gap is about $3,200 a month and it is a scheduling problem, not a wage problem. The drive-through clears its hurdle and can proceed once the new schedule holds for four weeks.

Revenue

$94,600

+6.2% vs July

Gross margin

61.8%

target 62%

Labor

31.4%

target 28%

Prime cost

69.6%

COGS + labor

Cash on hand

$48,200

5.9 weeks of fixed costs

Avg ticket

$9.40

+$0.30 vs July

13-week cash model

Projected ending cash, next 13 weeks

Cash dips to $31.2k in week 8 as quarterly insurance and the bean contract land in the same week, then recovers. The dip clears the $25k floor, so no action needed; if the drive-through deposit moves to September, week 8 drops to $27.4k and still clears.

By location

August

Superior St

Revenue

$52,400

Contribution

8.9%

Canal Park

Revenue

$42,200

Contribution

14.7%

Canal Park earns nearly double the margin on less revenue. The difference is almost entirely scheduled labor hours, not sales mix.

Unit economics

Contribution before labor

Item	Price	Var. cost	Margin
Drip coffee	$3.25	$0.48	85%
Latte	$5.75	$1.42	75%
Breakfast sandwich	$8.50	$3.91	54%
Retail beans, 12 oz	$16.00	$8.20	49%

Every latte sold instead of a drip adds $1.56 of margin. The October price test raises the latte $0.25; the model says demand holds and the line is worth about $410 a month.

Modeled this month: the drive-through window

GO, with conditions

Build cost

$38,000

Added revenue

+$7,400/mo

32 cars/day at $8.90

Added contribution

+$2,600/mo

after added labor

Payback

15 months

breakeven at 14 cars/day

Proceed if the final quote stays under $40,000 and Superior St's schedule change holds through September. The downside case, 24 cars a day, still pays back in 26 months; below 14 cars a day the added labor eats the margin and the window loses money.

Do these three things

This month's actions

01Cut 30 scheduled hours a week at Superior St, mid-morning overlap. At a $24.60 loaded rate that is about $3,200 a month. This week.

02Sign the drive-through contract only if the quote stays under $40,000. By October 15.

03Raise the latte $0.25 on October 1. Watch attach rate for two weeks; the model says it holds.

What arrives every month

Every Operator retainer

The rebuilt model

Updated with your actuals. The file is yours to keep.

KPI dashboard

Every number against a target you agreed to.

One decision, modeled

Whatever you're weighing this month, run through the numbers.

A 30-minute working call

The verdict, the why, and the three things to do.

Harbor & Pine Coffee Co. is a fictional business. Figures are illustrative of the analysis, not a real client's data. Get this for your business

Deal underwriting · September 2026

The Birchwood Duplex

Side-by-side duplex, Duluth MN · Underwritten for an investor client at the asking price

Prepared by
Melton Analytics

The verdict

Pass at $285,000. Fundable at $255,000. At ask this is a 2.7% cash-on-cash return with a 1.13 DSCR; you'd be buying a part-time job, not an investment. The building is sound and the rents are real. The price is the only problem, and it is $30,000 too high.

Asking price

$285,000

$144/sq ft

Gross rents

$2,945/mo

both units leased

NOI

$19,493

after 5% vacancy, all reserves

Cap rate at ask

6.8%

on real expenses, not pro forma

DSCR at ask

1.13

lenders want 1.25

Cash-on-cash

2.7%

on $82,250 in

The operating statement

Annual, underwritten · not the listing pro forma

Line	Annual	Note
Gross scheduled rent	$35,340	$1,495 + $1,450/mo
Vacancy, 5%	($1,767)	market runs 3 to 4
Taxes, insurance, water/sewer/garbage	($6,960)	actuals
Repairs and capital reserve, 10%	($3,534)	1948 building, original roofline
Management, 8%	($2,686)	priced in even if self-managed
Lawn and snow	($900)	actuals
Net operating income	$19,493
Debt service, 75% LTV at 7.1%, 30 yr	($17,238)	$1,437/mo
Cash flow before tax	$2,256	$188/mo

The listing sheet showed $6,100 of expenses and a 9% return. It skipped vacancy, reserves, and management, the three lines that make a duplex a business instead of a hobby. Underwritten honestly, the same building earns $188 a month at ask.

What the deal does at each price

Same building, same rents, same loan

Purchase price	Cash flow / yr	Cash-on-cash	DSCR
$285,000 · ask	$2,256	2.7%	1.13
$270,000	$3,163	4.0%	1.19
$255,000 · the number	$4,070	5.5%	1.26
$240,000	$4,977	7.1%	1.34

$255,000 is where the deal crosses a 1.25 DSCR, which is the line most lenders draw and the line where the property carries itself with room for a bad year. The offer strategy and the walk-away number come from this table, not from how the kitchen looks.

Three ways this deal works

RENEGOTIATE

01Offer $249,000, settle at $255,000. Justified in writing with this operating statement; the listing pro forma can't survive contact with it.

02The garage bay converts to storage rental at roughly $120 a month. Small, but $1,440 a year is a 35% bump to cash flow at the right price.

03If the seller won't move: walk. At these rates a duplex bought at a 1.13 DSCR has no margin for a furnace, a vacancy, or a roof, and this one is due for two of the three.

The Birchwood Duplex is a fictional property. Figures are illustrative of the analysis, not a real listing. Underwrite my deal